Bishop is a Rudd supporter, but less of a player; he has, though, been publicly critical of the government over its handling of asylum seeker policy, suggesting it should swallow its pride and send people to Nauru.

Obviously Griffin, Bishop and others in the Rudd camp have conversations with their colleagues about leadership; considering Labor's primary vote is well below 30 per cent, what else would you expect?

As far as one can tell, however, there is not presently any concerted ''ringing around'' to garner support for Rudd. Rather, the strategy of the former PM and his backers is to let the polls do their damage, until Labor MPs come to the conclusion that there has to be a change and Rudd is seen as the only option.

The personal strategy of Rudd - who is driven these days by the desire for vindication as much as by rational ambition - is the one he always adopts. He is omnipresent. In current circumstances, this serves several purposes. It keeps him in the public's mind (useful for those surveys of preferred Labor leader); it sucks attention from Gillard; and, when he is received as a rock star in MPs' electorates, it shows caucus members how popular he is, and how useful he could be to helping a lot of them hold their seats.

The Rudd camp doesn't want any blow-up of the leadership in the short term. Not only would it be better to have the carbon tax through Parliament, the mining tax squared away and the offshore processing legislation off the table, but the caucus needs longer to mull over the prospect of Rudd Mark II.

Once the ball is rolling in these things, however, timing potentially becomes a product of events. That's why caucus sources can't rule out a crisis before Christmas, though most people believe Gillard will survive into next year.

For the PM, the Rudd factor is disrupting positives and worsening negatives. The shadow of Rudd intensifies the risks she faces in difficult situations.

Next week the legislation to validate the Malaysia solution is due to come to a vote in the House of Representatives. The bill would be doomed in the Senate but Gillard is anxious for a tactical victory over Tony Abbott by getting it through the House. Both government and opposition are desperately working on West Australian National Tony Crook, who could provide the crucial crossbench vote. If Gillard, who took time from the tax summit to meet Crook on Wednesday, fails to land him, or any of the other three crossbench votes she needs, caucus criticism of her handling of the asylum seeker issue will increase.

While the Ruddites believe caucus members need a while to accept the notion of reinstalling the man so casually dispatched, Gillard's supporters hope time can work in her favour. With key legislation through, the outlook could be brighter, they argue. But ultimately, almost everything depends on the polls, which are usually the scourge of any leader under pressure. It's like trying to run up an escalator that's coming down.

Richardson, who modestly declared he knew ''a little bit about plotting'', had some advice for those seeking change: ''Look at history, now is not your time.'' They indeed agree - the irony is that incidents like this week's ''outing'' make it harder to control things.

All of which is good for Richo. People will be listening to him for that ''insider gossip'' that Gillard dismissed yesterday. That is just what the budding TV host intends.

Michelle Grattan is The Age's political editor.