We trudge through the frozen wasteland, dreaming of more hospitable lands by the sea: Dorne, perhaps, or Port Douglas.

And in this blasted, frigid land an ancient evil is stirring – at least, that's how it might feel if you're a Labor politician.

Like an army of blue-eyed – or in this case blue-tied – undead, Tony Abbott's Tory team has risen from the grave.

Over the languid summer Labor was relaxed, thinking this once-powerful threat was all but vanquished. The Coalition was a mess, locked in a death spiral of unedifying stuff-ups and backflips.

It culminated, of course, in the Prime Minister's near-death experience, when 39 of his colleagues brandished their knives, like the Night's Watch.

But as the seasons have shifted, so, too, have the political battlelines.

Autumn did not bring Abbott's fall. His comeback hasn't been pretty or consistent or error-free and it's still well and truly a work in progress – the Coalition is still behind in the polls after all.

But it's happening.

Much like the Night's King – that's the name of the creepy White Walker boss for those not as familiar with Game of Thrones lore as nerds like me – he's steadily gaining in power and confidence.

He's jettisoned unpopular policies, won back the esteem of his once-mutinous colleagues and delivered a popular budget. No small feat for someone so recently on political life support.

Just look at Abbott's recent speech to the NSW Liberal faithful. He looked like that guy who walked all over Kevin Rudd in the 2013 election campaign: a man with his mojo back, a leader enjoying himself and delighting in the woes of his political foes.

And for Bill Shorten, those woes are steadily stacking up.

Voters are turning off him and his personal approval rating is falling, despite some popular positions on issues such as same-sex marriage. He's a drag on Labor's two-party preferred vote.

His political and policy judgment is coming under increased scrutiny – and so is his history as a union leader.

His colleagues haven't abandoned him, but they are starting to have doubts about his ability to win an election against a reinvigorated Abbott. What should worry Shorten even more is the fact some have started quietly expressing those doubts to press gallery journalists.

The ABC's The Killing Season didn't help. While Shorten himself didn't come off too badly – we always knew the shady influence he wielded over the Rudd and Gillard era and the "revelation" he lied to a radio host about it shouldn't shock us – it wasn't good for brand Labor. Christopher Pyne beat me to it by likening the bloodletting to the Red Wedding.

It was a reminder, just when some people were perhaps starting to forget, how much of a rabble this party can be.

Is one term in the political wilderness really sufficient punishment for the half decade of psychodrama they put us through?

Now Parliament has risen for the long winter break. And for Labor, it will bring some chill winds indeed.

The ongoing Royal Commission into Trade Union Governance and Corruption may be a witch-hunt but it's still damaging for Shorten. There's been no smoking gun to prove he's done anything particularly wrong but many less engaged swinging voters don't need one – they just read the headlines and get a vague whiff of scandal. If they know one thing about Shorten, it's that he used to be a union boss and the unions aren't looking too good right now.

Shorten will appear before the commission next month. A lot hinges on how credibly he performs.

Of course, once Shorten gets to the ALP national conference later in July he may wish he was back at the commission. He needs a public party brawl about as much as Tywin Lannister needs another hole in the guts.

And, yes, with apologies to readers who aren't fans of the series, I'm going to extend the Game of Thrones comparisons even further.

You see, what makes the White Walkers such a threat is not really intrinsic; it's that the men and women of Westeros are too busy fighting among themselves to mount an effective resistance.

Any and all Labor divisions will play directly into Abbott's hands. And the more damage Labor insists on doing to itself, the more speculation will rise about an early election.

Of course, both Abbott and Shorten have an interest in making us think an election is just around the corner: it keeps their troops in line. For Abbott, it reduces the risk of another backbench insurgency; Shorten hopes it will calm the waters at national conference.

Nonetheless, this winter will be Labor's darkest period since Shorten became leader. Will Abbott let that opportunity pass him by?

It's still hard to say. But you know what happened the last time the White Walkers marched on Westeros? It plunged the land of men into the Long Night, a winter that lasted a generation.

Rug up, Labor.

Adam Gartrell is national political correspondent.